green house gases

Introduction
The buildup of green house gases in the atmosphere is causing the earths atmosphere to warm up; this much is an undisputed fact. However, the extent that mans activities contribute to the warm up and the best policy response to the same is a cause of disagreement. Economists weigh the cost benefit analysis of mitigating these changes and
advocate an approach that starts out small and grows gradually. On the contrary, the environmentalists and scientists advocate for a mitigation plan that is extreme from its inception. Regardless of the approach chosen, climate change will have a major effect on the economic growth of nations across the globe. From an economic point of view, a balanced approach is one that addresses the problem of climate change with minimal effect on the economy. In addressing the issue of climate change, it should be understood that climate is always adjusting naturally. The alarming issue here is the influence of human activity on the natural variations.
Proponents of extreme measures argue that there is no time to waste, greenhouse emission must be cut now. The science of global warming tells a different story, human activities in the immediate future have very little bearing on the climate for several decades to come. Human induced global warming is therefore not an immediate threat to the society. To address the issue of global warming effectively, policy makers must consider the effects of human activity in the near future and respond according. Drastically cutting green house gas emission will not only negatively influence the economic growth of countries, but also has no effect on the current changes in the atmospheric temperature. The mitigation plans suggested by scientist and environmentalist pose an immediate threat to economic growth and the wellbeing of people across the world, unlike the possible effects of current emissions on future climate. The greatest threat that the issue of global warming poses to the world is that the policy makers adopt regulations with a high marginal cost function in the short run. This will slow economic growth because the programs resulting from the policy would not only be ineffective, but also extremely dramatic considering the known effects of global warming.
Research project: What are the economic consequences of global warming?
Climate change will affect the global economic growth within the next few decades. The current rate of change in the climate is minimal and unlikely to have any immediate real effect on economic growth. However, continued changes will have influence on global vegetation. The influence will spread to the extent of affecting agricultural activities, such as the production of field crops, pasture, and forestry. According to John et al (11), changes in the climate and the increase of green house gases, such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, will generally have a positive effect on crop and livestock production. However, other greenhouse gases, such as CH4 are Ozone precursors. The production of these ozone precursors is directly related to the production of CO2. To control the emission of such ozone precursors implies less combustion of fossils fuels. Current estimates suggest that to stabilize the global green house gases concentration at double the levels before the industrial period requires current emission to be cut by more than 60%. The Kyoto Protocol represents an international effort to reduce greenhouse emission in developed nations; however, the targets set by the protocol are modest. Major polluters, such as China and the United States are not members.
Global warming will affect developing nations to a greater degree. Whereas increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results in higher productivity of crops, the rising temperature results in changes in climate patterns and abrupt changes in local weather for a majority of farmers in developing nations. Agriculture in developing nations is rain fed therefore, susceptible to changes in climate. Developed nations have the resources required to implement mitigation programs, especially those requiring the use of modern technologies. In developing nations, agriculture production is a major employer and contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The negative influence of climate change on agriculture will affect the GDP of developing nations leading to lower living standards and higher rate of unemployment as agriculture becomes an unviable enterprise in certain parts of the world (Mendelssohn 8).
Changes in climate will influence the production of crops, especially in rain fed farms. Livestock will suffer largely because they are more susceptible to stress associated with heat. Changes in temperature affect the appetite and reproduction cycle of livestock. Higher temperature lowers the animals appetite and increases the lengths of the reproduction cycle. This can also increase the incidents of diseases because parasitic insects are more active in a warmer climate. The increased activity of parasitic insects and the heat stress reduce the animals capacity to fight an infection leading to higher mortality rate. The climate change will also accelerate the spread of tropical diseases to temperate regions (Weitzman 708).
For countries that depend on natural resources, the risk posed by global warming is higher. Increase in ocean temperatures is affecting fishing because the higher temperature reduces the survival rate of spawning fish. Destructive pest, such as beetles and grasshoppers that are capable of devastating entire fields are increasing in numbers because the higher temperature favor their reproduction and increase their rate of maturation. The increase in temperatures is also posing an indirect threat to established urban centers because of the reducing water levels (Richard 15). This is especially a real threat for those urban centers located in arid areas that depend on bore holes and wells for their water supply. Lower water supply will also affect the recreation activities in major cities. The net effect on recreation is expected to be positive despite the decrease in water availability because more people will engage in summer sports. Despite the vulnerability of these sectors to climate change, they only account to 5% of global economy. The effects are extreme in developing nations because the percentage of their economy dependent on the vulnerable sectors is greater than the global average.
A major issue that makes the climate change phenomena a global problem is that despite the location where the greenhouse gases are produced, they diffuse throughout the atmosphere and their effects are evenly distributed across the globe. Developed nations, such as the United States and China contribute more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than the developing countries combined. The developing nations are more vulnerable to the changes in the climate than the developing nations because they lack the capacity to respond with the appropriate technology. The economies of developing nations rely heavily on agriculture and forestry. Most of the developing countries are located in the tropical regions were the temperatures are higher and more likely to reach intolerable levels if the current trend continues. For the developing nations, climate change is not only resulting in loss of habitable land to the sea because of the increase in the ocean levels, it is also resulting to loss of habitable and agriculturally productive land inland because of the rising temperatures and the decline in water levels (John et al 7).
Proponents of human caused global warming advocate for an immediate reduction in the production of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. However, a sharp reduction in greenhouse gases in the short run is very expensive and places poor nation at a greater disadvantage because they are in a development phase where the technology in use is inefficient and outdated. Suggested reduction strategies, such as increasing the marginal cost of emission is highly dependent on the technical level of an economy. A technical advanced economy is in a position to respond to an increase in the marginal cost of emission, however, a young economy will crumble under the rising cost of energy. Alternative energy suggested by the proponents of these extreme interventions includes hydrothermal, wind and solar power. Hydrothermal is fully exploited in many areas of the world and is relatively expensive when compared to the convection sources of power (Libecap & Richard 53). Wind and solar as sources of power are highly unreliable and are only applicable, even for domestic uses, in selected areas. The amount of power from these sources is also not sufficient to power major industries, such as a steel industry.
A major result of climate change that is likely to cost the economy is the coping strategies employed to manage the effects. Farms that previously depended on rain must acquire irrigation equipment to meet the crops water requirements. The farmers must invest in cooling equipments for the livestock to maintain productivity. More money is spent in the management of pest and diseases because high temperatures increase productivity and active life span of parasitic pest. Livestock farmers are likely to spend more in the purchase of additives because fodder is less nutritional (Mendelssohn & Ariel 14). The decrease in productive land and the productivity of the remaining land will increase the number of people facing hunger and starvation at any particular time. Relief efforts will need more money to meet the growing number of people facing drought and starvation. A new class of refugees will emerge, climate refugees. The rising sea level and the increasing temperatures will result in some people abandoning their homes and seeking shelter elsewhere.
Climate change could cause major losses to the economy, however, the probability of such events occurring is low and in the future. The mitigation policies suggested by the environmental enthusiast is too extreme and it is not even clear if the mitigations they suggest can avert the disaster underway. A more sober approach is to use a tool that is flexible and has an immediate effect. Geoengineering is the only economically viable option if a disaster is eminent because of climate change. This technology involves the use of planes to spray particles in higher levels of the atmosphere. The particles help modulate the atmospheric temperature and can take effect in only a few weeks. Use this technology is cheaper and does not adversely affect poor populations in prone areas. This mitigation strategy does not pose a threat to economic development (Libecap & Richard 71).
 Works cited
John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Benjamin Felzer, Xiaodong Wang, David Kicklighter, John Melillo, Ronald Prinn, Marcus Sarofim, Andrei Sokolov and Chien Wang. Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report No. 149, 2007. 18
Libecap, Gary D, and Richard H. Steckel. The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2011. Print.
Mendelssohn, Robert O, and Ariel Dinar. Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation and Distributional Effects. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2009.
Mendelssohn, Robert. Climate Change and Economic Growth. The Commission of Growth and Development, 2009. 14
Richard S. J. T. The economic impact of climate change. ESRI working paper, No. 255, 2008. 19
   Weitzman, Martin L. A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Journal of Economic Literature 45.1 (2007): 703-724.